На 16 и 17 май 2005 г. БНБ проведе Третата международна конференция на централните банки от Балканските страни на тема "Икономическо моделиране и прогнозиране".
Third Annual Conference for the Balkan Countries’ Central Banks
ECONOMIC MODELLING AND FORECASTING
Varna, St. St. Konstantin & Elena, Hotel “Azalia”
May 16-17, 2005
PROGRAM
Monday, 16 May 2005 | |
9:00–9:30 |
Registration |
9:30 |
Opening of the conference Welcome address Mr. Bojidar Kabakchiev, Deputy Governor |
Session I Chair: Mariella Nenova, BNB | |
9:40–10:10 |
Guest Speaker: Frederick Demers, Research Department, Bank of Canada “Econometric Forecasts Package: Short-Run Forecasting Models for Current Analysis” |
10:10–10:40 |
Model Presentation: Andrey Vassilev, BNB |
10:40–11:10 |
Model Presentation: Stefan Tzvetkov, Agency for Economic Analysis and Forecasting |
11:10 -11:30 |
Coffee break |
11:30 -12:00 |
Biljana Davidovska- Stoianova, National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia “A Macro-Econometric Model for the Republic of Macedonia” |
12:00 -13:00 |
Discussion Frederick Demers BNB AEAF |
13:00 -14:30 |
Lunch |
Session II Chair: Andrey Vassilev, BNB | |
14:30–15:00 |
Cristophe Planas, Alessandro Rossi, Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, Gabriele Fiorentini, University of Florence |
15:00–15:15 |
Discussant: Stefan Tzvetkov (AEAF) |
15:15-15:45 |
George Chobanov, Sofia University |
15:45-16:00 |
Discussant: Tzvetan Tzalinski (BNB) |
16:00 -16:30 |
Coffee Break |
16:30-17:00 |
Javier J. Pґerez, Universidad Pablo de Olavide de Sevilla |
17:00-17:15 |
Discussant: Christian Dreger |
17:15-17:45 |
Gerhard Fenz, Martin Schneider and Martin Spitzer, Oesterreichische Nationalbank “The Economic Indicator of the OeNB: Methods and Forecasting Performance” |
17:45-18:00 |
Discussant: Mariella Nenova (BNB) |
18:00-18.30 |
Discussion |
19:00 |
Dinner |
Tuesday, May 17 2005 | |
Session III Chair: Rossen Rozenov, BNB | |
9:00-9:30 |
Nikolay Gueorguiev and Pelin Berkmen, IMF |
9:30-9:45 |
Discussant: George Chobanov |
9:45-10:15 |
Plamen Patev, Nigokhos Kanaryan, Academy of Economics, Svishtov “Modelling and Forecasting the Volatility of Thin Emerging Stock Markets: the Case of Bulgaria” |
10:15-10:30 |
Discussant: Boris Petrov (BNB) |
10:30 -11:00 |
Coffee Break |
11:00 - 11:30 |
Dionysios Chionis, Konstantinos Leon, Democritus University, Greece “Modeling Interest Rate Transmission Dynamics in Greece. Is there any Structural Break After EMU?” |
11:30 - 11:45 |
Discussant: Javier P’erez |
11:45 - 12:15 |
Christian Dreger, Institute for Economic Research Halle, Hans-Eggert Reimers, Hochschule Wismar, University of Technology, Business and Design, Wismar “Long-run money demand in the new EU member states with exchange rate effects” |
12:15-12:30 |
Discussant: Dionysios Chionis |
12:30-13:00 |
Jelena Maravic and Mirjana Palic, Research Department of NBS, |
13.00-13.15 |
Discussant: Mihail Mihailov, BNB |
13.15-13.30 |
General discussion Concluding remarks |
13:30- 14:30 |
Lunch |
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